Market Pulse: Week of 10/6/2025

Oct 12

  
      Index / Benchmark
      Last Week
      1‑Month (Trailing)
      YTD
    

  
      DJIA
      −2.70%
      −0.80%
      +8.30%
    

      S&P 500
      −2.40%
      +1.20%
      +12.50%
    

      Nasdaq
      −2.50%
      +1.50%
      +15.60%
    

      Russell 2000
      −3.30%
      +2.00%
      +7.40%
    

      MSCI EAFE
      −1.90%
      +0.80%
      +25.30%
    

      MSCI EM
      −2.80%
      +1.40%
      +19.80%
    

      Bloomberg U.S. Agg
      +0.70%
      +1.10%
      +6.20%
    

      Bloomberg U.S. Corp HY
      −1.20%
      +0.90%
      +9.10%
    

Data as of: Friday, October 10, 2025, 4:00 p.m. ET

See important disclosures below.

10/6/2025 - 10/10/2025

U.S. Economy

Continued federal government shutdown (since Oct. 1) delayed major releases, leaving policy and economic outlook less transparent.

September ISM Services fell to 50.0, edging manufacturing and signaling growth deceleration.

Equity Market

Stocks slumped Friday after tariff escalation: S&P −2.4%, Dow −2.7%, Nasdaq −2.5%.

Tech and semiconductor sectors led losses; defensive names held up better amid risk aversion.

Bond Market

The 10‑year Treasury yield fell ~7 basis points, rallying into safe‑haven demand.

Credit spreads widened modestly in high yield, reflecting risk‑off tone and investor caution.

Around the Globe

Developed and emerging markets declined: MSCI EAFE −1.9%, EM −2.8%, pressured by weaker global growth concerns.

Oil plunged ~5% on trade risk headlines; gold again broke above $4,000, drawing yield‑sensitive flows.

The Week Ahead…

10/13/2025 - 10/17/2025

```
Mon
```
- ```
Europe industrial production
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Tue

```
NFIB Small Business Index, 
```

Bank earnings (JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock)

```
Johnson & Johnson earnings
```
```
Domino’s Pizza earnings
```
```
API crude inventories
```

Wed

```
U.S. CPI
```
```
Empire State Manufacturing Index
```
```
MBA Mortgage Applications
```

Bank of America and Morgan Stanley earnings

```
United Airlines earnings 
```
```
J.B. Hunt earnings
```

Thu

```
U.S. Retail Sales
```
```
U.S. PPI
```
```
Philadelphia Fed Index 
```
```
Weekly Jobless Claims
```

Charles Schwab and U.S. Bancorp Earnings

```
CSX earnings
```

Fri

U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

American Express and Schlumberger earnings

Earnings season kicks off in earnest, with Tuesday’s mega-bank results (JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock) setting the tone alongside Johnson & Johnson and Domino’s Pizza. The macro slate builds mid-week. Tuesday’s NFIB Small Business Index, Wednesday’s CPI and Empire State Manufacturing, then a busy Thursday with Retail Sales, PPI, Philadelphia Fed, and Jobless Claims. Friday rounds out housing and production trends with Housing Starts/Permits, and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization. Additional highlights include Fastenal (Mon), Bank of America and Morgan Stanley (Wed), Charles Schwab and U.S. Bancorp (Thu), and American Express and Schlumberger (Fri). Conferences and investor days add color but earnings dominate.

-Matt Shaw, CFA

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This report and the opinions provided herein are for informational purposes only, are not a solicitation, and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or investment. All opinions expressed herein constitute the author’s judgement as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Statements made are not facts, including statements regarding trends, market conditions and the experience or expertise of author are based on current expectations, estimates, opinions and/or beliefs. Such statements are not facts and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Past events and trends do not predict or guarantee or indicate future events or results. Information cited in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable and was captured at a point in time. Therefore, the data is subject to change and its accuracy is not guaranteed. DJIA, S&P, Russell 2000, and NASDAQ indices are referenced directly; MSCI EAFE, MSCI EM, BB U.S. Aggregate, Bloomberg U.S. Corp. HY, and all sector figures refer to the respective ETFs as a representative figure. Ategenos does not own or control and is not affiliated with any third-party content provided via hyperlink, quoted, or cited herein. Investors seeking more information should contact their financial advisor. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Ategenos is an investment adviser registered with the SEC. SEC registration does not imply any specific level of training or skill.

Matt Shaw