Market Pulse: Week of 9/29/2025

Oct 5

  
      
      Last Week
      1-Month (Trailing)
      YTD
    

  
      DJIA
      +1.10%
      +2.85%
      +9.90%
    

      S&P 500
      +1.10%
      +3.20%
      +14.20%
    

      Nasdaq
      +1.30%
      +4.50%
      +18.00%
    

      Russell 2000
      +1.70%
      +4.00%
      +11.00%
    

      MSCI EAFE
      +1.80%
      +3.50%
      +12.50%
    

      MSCI EM
      +2.20%
      +5.80%
      +15.40%
    

      Bloomberg U.S. Agg
      -0.30%
      -0.80%
      +1.50%
    

      Bloomberg U.S. Corp HY
      +0.45%
      +1.20%
      +5.60%
    

Data as of: Friday, October 3, 2025, 4:00 p.m. ET

See important disclosures below.

9/29/2025 - 10/3/2025

U.S. Economy

ISM reported the September Services PMI at 50.0, with New Orders 50.4 and Employment 47.2, indicating near-stall conditions and softer hiring.

The federal shutdown delayed the September Employment Situation report originally slated for October 3. Markets leaned on private proxies and Fed-speak for direction.

Equity Market

For the week ended October 3, the S&P 500 and Dow closed at record highs. The Nasdaq rose as well, reflecting resilient risk appetite despite data gaps.

Breadth improved into quarter-end. Small caps outperformed late in the week as rate expectations stabilized and cyclical leadership broadened.

Bond Market

Treasury yields edged higher into Friday: 10-year around 4.16% and 2-year near 3.60%, leaving the 10s–2s spread near 0.56%.

Credit stayed firm: high-yield option-adjusted spreads hovered near ~2.8%, while investment-grade spreads remained narrow on steady issuance demand.

Around the Globe

Developed markets advanced on the week. Europe’s STOXX 600 gained, and Japan’s Nikkei held near highs as global rate-cut expectations underpinned sentiment.

Commodities diverged: WTI crude slipped week-over-week despite a late bounce, while gold hovered near record territory alongside softer real yields.

The Week Ahead…

10/6/2025 - 10/10/2025

Mon

```
CB Employment Trends Index (Sep)
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Constellation Brands Earnings
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Tue

```
Fed Speak
```

U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services (Aug)

```
McCormick earnings
```

Wed

```
FOMC minutes (Sept 16–17 meeting)
```
```
10-Year Note Auction
```

Thu

```
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
```
```
30-Year Bond Auction
```

PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, & Levi Strauss report results.

Fri

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

```
U.S. Monthly Budget Statement
```

The coming week features limited federal data due to the shutdown, putting extra weight on Tuesday’s U.S. trade balance and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes for policy signals. On Thursday, the usual jobless claims print is likely absent, keeping attention on corporate updates. Earnings skew toward recognizable consumer and travel names, with Constellation Brands kicking things off Monday, McCormick on Tuesday, and a heavier slate Thursday including PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and Levi Strauss. Friday’s University of Michigan sentiment will offer a timely read on consumers alongside the Monthly Budget Statement. With hard data scarce, markets may trade on Fed commentary, company guidance, and any shutdown developments, while rate-cut expectations and commodity moves continue to shape cross-asset tone.

-Matt Shaw, CFA

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This report and the opinions provided herein are for informational purposes only, are not a solicitation, and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or investment. All opinions expressed herein constitute the author’s judgement as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Statements made are not facts, including statements regarding trends, market conditions and the experience or expertise of author are based on current expectations, estimates, opinions and/or beliefs. Such statements are not facts and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Past events and trends do not predict or guarantee or indicate future events or results. Information cited in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable and was captured at a point in time. Therefore, the data is subject to change and its accuracy is not guaranteed. DJIA, S&P, Russell 2000, and NASDAQ indices are referenced directly; MSCI EAFE, MSCI EM, BB U.S. Aggregate, Bloomberg U.S. Corp. HY, and all sector figures refer to the respective ETFs as a representative figure. Ategenos does not own or control and is not affiliated with any third-party content provided via hyperlink, quoted, or cited herein. Investors seeking more information should contact their financial advisor. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Ategenos is an investment adviser registered with the SEC. SEC registration does not imply any specific level of training or skill.

Matt Shaw