Market Pulse: Week of 10/13/2025

Index / Asset	Last Week	1-Month (Trailing)	YTD
DJIA	+1.56%	+0.37%	+8.57%
S&P 500	+1.70%	+0.96%	+13.30%
Nasdaq	+2.14%	+1.88%	+17.45%
Russell 2000	+2.40%	+1.86%	+10.00%
MSCI EAFE	+2.46%	+1.62%	+25.00%
MSCI EM	+4.31%	+1.73%	+29.56%
Bloomberg U.S. Agg	+0.53%	+0.39%	+4.19%
Bloomberg U.S. Corp HY	+0.96%	-0.41%	+2.63%

Data as of: Friday, October 17, 2025, 4:00 p.m. ET

See important disclosures below.

10/13/2025 - 10/17/2025

U.S. Economy

• The U.S. government remains in a shutdown, limiting data availability. NAHB Sentiment hit its highest point since May of this year; NFIB slipped but remained above average.

• Chair Powell said the outlook hasn’t changed much since September and hinted at an earlier end to quantitative tightening. Markets still price two 25bps cuts by year-end.

Equity Market

• Major indexes rebounded: Dow +1.56%, S&P 500 +1.70%, Nasdaq +2.14%, Russell 2000 +2.40%, recovering from the prior Friday’s selloff as U.S.–China tensions eased.

• Alphabet was up 7.1% and Tesla increased 6.2%, leading big tech. Financials lagged on regional bank weakness.

Bond Market

• Treasuries firmed with modest curve steepening; the 2-year yield pushed to fresh three-year lows.

• Credit was mixed: high yield was resilient alongside weekly equity gains, but regional bank headlines pressured financial credit late in the week.

Around the Globe

• Geopolitics eased: signs of U.S.–China de-escalation supported risk early; a potential Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea remains in focus.

• Commodities diverged: gold +5.3% notched a ninth straight weekly gain and fresh records; WTI crude fell 3.0% for a third consecutive weekly decline. 

The Week Ahead…

10/20/2025 - 10/24/2025

• Mon

  • U.S. Leading Index (Sep)

  • No major earnings results

• Tue

  • Fed Speak

  • Netflix, Coca-Cola, Phillip Morris Earnings

• Wed

  • Crude Oil Inventories

  • 20-yr Bond Auction

  • Tesla, IBM, AT&T Earnings

• Thu

  • Jobless Claims

  • Existing Home Sales

  • T-Mobile, Intel, Honeywell Earnings

• Fri

  • U.S. Building Permits (Sep)

  • CPI (Sep)

  • UofM Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

  • P&G Earnings

Monday’s Leading Index (Sep) sets the tone by predicting future economic activity. Mid-week, crude-oil inventories and a 20-year Treasury auction offer read-through on energy supply and demand for duration. Friday’s trio of Building Permits (Sep), CPI (Sep), and University of Michigan sentiment (Oct) will anchor views on housing resilience, inflation progress, and consumer confidence.

Tuesday features Netflix, The Coca-Cola Company, and Philip Morris International, which are useful gauges of streaming engagement and consumer pricing power. Wednesday turns to Tesla, IBM, and AT&T for EV margins, enterprise IT spend, and telecom cash flows. Thursday highlights T-Mobile, Intel, and Honeywell, while Friday closes with Procter & Gamble’s brand-level pricing/volume mix.

Fed commentary Tuesday frames reaction to Friday’s CPI. Housing prints and claims will shape “soft-landing” odds, while mega-cap and industrial reports test margins, AI tailwinds, and inventory discipline, which are key inputs for equities, credit spreads, and rates.

-Matt Shaw, CFA

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