Market Pulse: Week of 10/27/2025

Nov 2

  
      
      Last Week
      1-Month (Trailing)
      YTD
    

  
      DJIA
      +0.75%
      +2.20%
      +10.96%
    

      S&P 500
      +0.71%
      +2.90%
      +15.49%
    

      Nasdaq
      +2.24%
      +4.20%
      +20.16%
    

      Russell 2000
      −1.36%
      +3.10%
      +11.30%
    

      MSCI EAFE
      −0.58%
      +2.05%
      +25.70%
    

      MSCI EM
      +0.36%
      +3.73%
      +31.78%
    

      Bloomberg U.S. Agg
      −0.59%
      +0.54%
      +4.35%
    

      Bloomberg U.S. Corp HY
      −0.21%
      +1.20%
      +8.64%
    

Data as of: Friday, October 31, 2025, 4:00 p.m. ET

See important disclosures below.

10/27/2025 - 10/31/2025

U.S. Economy

Fed cut 25 bps; two dissents; balance-sheet runoff ends December 1; December cut “not a foregone conclusion.”

Markets price a 62% December cut probability, down from 90% pre-FOMC; path flattened for 2026 cuts.

Equity Market

Indexes mostly higher: S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq +2.2%, Dow +0.8%; Russell 2000 -1.36%.

Leadership broadened: semis, trucking, machinery, logistics, moneycenter banks; Amazon +8.9%, Alphabet +8.2%, Nvidia +8.7; Meta −12.2%.

Bond Market

Treasuries weaker; curve flattened; 2-year yield up ~12 bps to 3.60%.

Repricing toward fewer cuts pressured duration; dollar index rose 0.9% on the week.

Around the Globe

Trump–Xi met in South Korea; China postponed tighter rare-earth controls; U.S. reduced fentanyl tariffs; new farm purchases pledged.

Commodities softer: gold −3.4% (second weekly decline), WTI crude −0.9%; Bitcoin futures −0.3%.

The Week Ahead…

11/03/2025 - 11/07/2025

Mon

```
Palantir, Clorox, onsemi
```
```
ISM Manufacturing Index
```
```
Construction Spending
```

Tue

```
Pfizer, Uber, AMD
```
```
Trade Balance
```
```
JOLTS Job Openings
```

Wed

```
Qualcomm, McKesson, Humana
```
```
ISM Services Index
```
```
ADP Employment Report
```

Thu

```
Airbnb, Expedia, EOG Resources
```
```
Weekly Jobless Claims
```
```
Unit Labor Costs (prelim)
```

Fri

CNH Industrial, Franklin Resources, Wendy's

```
Nonfarm Payrolls
```
```
Unemployment Rate
```

The first week of November features a busy mix of earnings and economic data as markets digest last week’s Fed decision. Monday brings updates from Palantir, Clorox, and onsemi, alongside fresh reads on manufacturing activity through the ISM Manufacturing Index and construction spending, both offering an early look at industrial momentum heading into year-end.

Tuesday’s focus shifts to consumer and technology bellwethers as Pfizer, Uber, and AMD report results. Economic releases include the September trade balance and JOLTS job openings, which could provide insight into labor market resilience after signs of slowing in recent months.

Midweek attention turns to Qualcomm, McKesson, and Humana earnings, paired with key economic data such as the ISM Services Index and ADP employment report. The week concludes with reports from Airbnb, Expedia, EOG Resources, and Friday’s highly anticipated October jobs report, where investors will gauge whether labor conditions are softening enough to justify another Fed rate cut in December.

-Matt Shaw, CFA

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This report and the opinions provided herein are for informational purposes only, are not a solicitation, and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or investment. All opinions expressed herein constitute the author’s judgement as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Statements made are not facts, including statements regarding trends, market conditions and the experience or expertise of author are based on current expectations, estimates, opinions and/or beliefs. Such statements are not facts and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Past events and trends do not predict or guarantee or indicate future events or results. Information cited in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable and was captured at a point in time. Therefore, the data is subject to change and its accuracy is not guaranteed. DJIA, S&P, Russell 2000, and NASDAQ indices are referenced directly; MSCI EAFE, MSCI EM, BB U.S. Aggregate, Bloomberg U.S. Corp. HY, and all sector figures refer to the respective ETFs as a representative figure. Ategenos does not own or control and is not affiliated with any third-party content provided via hyperlink, quoted, or cited herein. Investors seeking more information should contact their financial advisor. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Ategenos is an investment adviser registered with the SEC. SEC registration does not imply any specific level of training or skill.

Matt Shaw